Safer and more efficient vital signs monitoring protocols to identify the deteriorating patients in the general hospital ward: an observational study.

Background: The frequency at which patients should have their vital signs (e.g. blood pressure, pulse, oxygen saturation) measured on hospital wards is currently unknown. Current National Health Service monitoring protocols are based on expert opinion but supported by little empirical evidence. The challenge is finding the balance between insufficient monitoring (risking missing early signs of deterioration and delays in treatment) and over-observation of stable patients (wasting resources needed in other aspects of care). Objective: Provide an evidence-based approach to creating monitoring protocols based on a patient's risk of deterioration and link these to nursing workload and economic impact. Design: Our study consisted of two parts: (1) an observational study of nursing staff to ascertain the time to perform vital sign observations; and (2) a retrospective study of historic data on patient admissions exploring the relationships between National Early Warning Score and risk of outcome over time. These were underpinned by opinions and experiences from stakeholders. Setting and participants: Observational study: observed nursing staff on 16 randomly selected adult general wards at four acute National Health Service hospitals. Retrospective study: extracted, linked and analysed routinely collected data from two large National Health Service acute trusts; data from over 400,000 patient admissions and 9,000,000 vital sign observations. Results: Observational study found a variety of practices, with two hospitals having registered nurses take the majority of vital sign observations and two favouring healthcare assistants or student nurses. However, whoever took the observations spent roughly the same length of time. The average was 5:01 minutes per observation over a 'round', including time to locate and prepare the equipment and travel to the patient area. Retrospective study created survival models predicting the risk of outcomes over time since the patient was last observed. For low-risk patients, there was little difference in risk between 4 hours and 24 hours post observation. Conclusions: We explored several different scenarios with our stakeholders (clinicians and patients), based on how 'risk' could be managed in different ways. Vital sign observations are often done more frequently than necessary from a bald assessment of the patient's risk, and we show that a maximum threshold of risk could theoretically be achieved with less resource. Existing resources could therefore be redeployed within a changed protocol to achieve better outcomes for some patients without compromising the safety of the rest. Our work supports the approach of the current monitoring protocol, whereby patients' National Early Warning Score 2 guides observation frequency. Existing practice is to observe higher-risk patients more frequently and our findings have shown that this is objectively justified. It is worth noting that important nurse-patient interactions take place during vital sign monitoring and should not be eliminated under new monitoring processes. Our study contributes to the existing evidence on how vital sign observations should be scheduled. However, ultimately, it is for the relevant professionals to decide how our work should be used. Study registration: This study is registered as ISRCTN10863045. Funding: This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health and Social Care Delivery Research programme (NIHR award ref: 17/05/03) and is published in full in Health and Social Care Delivery Research; Vol. 12, No. 6. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

Patient recovery in hospital is tracked by measuring heart rate, blood pressure and other 'vital signs' and converting them into a score. These are 'observed' regularly by nursing staff so that deterioration can be spotted early. However, taking observations can disturb patients, and taking them too often causes extra work for staff. More frequent monitoring is recommended for higher scores, but evidence is lacking. To work out how often patients should be monitored, we needed to know how likely it is for patients to become more unwell between observations. We analysed over 400,000 patient records from two hospitals to understand how scores change with time. We looked at three of the most serious risks for patients in hospital. These risks are dying, needing intensive care or having a cardiac arrest. We also looked at the risk that a patient's condition would deteriorate significantly before their measurements were taken again. We identified early signs of deterioration and how changes in vital signs affected the risk of a patient's condition becoming worse. From this we calculated a maximum risk of deterioration. We then calculated different monitoring schedules that keep individual patients below this risk level. Some of those would consume less staff time than current National Health Service guidelines suggest. We also watched staff record patients' vital signs. We learnt it takes about 5 minutes to take these measurements from each patient. This information helped us calculate how costs would change if patients' vital signs were taken more or less often. We found that patients with a low overall score could have their vital signs monitored less often without being in danger of serious harm. This frees up nursing time so that patients with a higher score can be monitored more often. Importantly, this can be achieved without employing more staff.

Impact of e-ASPECTS software on the performance of physicians compared to a consensus ground truth: a multi-reader, multi-case study.

Background: The Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score (ASPECTS) is used to quantify the extent of injury to the brain following acute ischemic stroke (AIS) and to inform treatment decisions. The e-ASPECTS software uses artificial intelligence methods to automatically process non-contrast CT (NCCT) brain scans from patients with AIS affecting the middle cerebral artery (MCA) territory and generate an ASPECTS. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of e-ASPECTS (Brainomix, Oxford, UK) on the performance of US physicians compared to a consensus ground truth. Methods: The study used a multi-reader, multi-case design. A total of 10 US board-certified physicians (neurologists and neuroradiologists) scored 54 NCCT brain scans of patients with AIS affecting the MCA territory. Each reader scored each scan on two occasions: once with and once without reference to the e-ASPECTS software, in random order. Agreement with a reference standard (expert consensus read with reference to follow-up imaging) was evaluated with and without software support. Results: A comparison of the area under the curve (AUC) for each reader showed a significant improvement from 0.81 to 0.83 (p = 0.028) with the support of the e-ASPECTS tool. The agreement of reader ASPECTS scoring with the reference standard was improved with e-ASPECTS compared to unassisted reading of scans: Cohen's kappa improved from 0.60 to 0.65, and the case-based weighted Kappa improved from 0.70 to 0.81. Conclusion: Decision support with the e-ASPECTS software significantly improves the accuracy of ASPECTS scoring, even by expert US neurologists and neuroradiologists.

Influence of diabetes and obesity on ten-year outcomes after coronary artery bypass grafting in the arterial revascularisation trial.

AIMS: Diabetes and obesity are common conditions which can influence outcomes after coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery. The aim of this study was to evaluate the influence of diabetes and obesity, and their interactions, on ten-year outcomes following CABG. METHODS AND RESULTS: Patients enrolled in the Arterial Revascularisation Trial (ART) were stratified by diabetes and obesity at baseline. Diabetes was further stratified into insulin and non-insulin dependent. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality at 10 years of follow-up. Secondary outcomes were the composite of all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction or stroke at 10 years, and sternal wound complications at 6 months follow-up. A total of 3096 patients were included in the analysis (24% with diabetes, 30% with obesity). Patients in the "diabetes/no obesity" group had a higher risk of all-cause mortality following CABG (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.33, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.08-1.64, p = 0.01) compared to the reference group of "no diabetes/no obesity". No excess risk was observed in the "no diabetes/obesity" or "diabetes/obesity" groups. Patients with insulin dependent diabetes had a significantly higher ten-year mortality risk compared to no diabetes (aHR 1.85, 95% CI 1.41-2.44, p = 0.00). Patients in the "diabetes/no obesity" and "diabetes/obesity groups" had a higher risk of sternal wound complications (HR 2.29, 95% CI 1.39-3.79, p < 0.001 and HR 3.21, 95% CI 1.89-5.45, p < 0.001 respectively). The composite outcome results were consistent with the mortality results. CONCLUSION: Diabetes, especially insulin dependent diabetes, is associated with a higher ten-year mortality risk after CABG, in contrast to obesity which does not appear to increase long term mortality compared to non-obese. The interaction between diabetes and obesity shows an apparent "protective" effect of obesity irrespective of diabetes on mortality. Both conditions are associated with a higher risk of post-operative sternal wound infections.

Coronary artery bypass grafting using bilateral internal thoracic arteries in patients with diabetes and obesity: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: Patients with diabetes and obesity are at higher risk of adverse long-term outcomes following coronary artery bypass grafting. The use of bilateral internal thoracic arteries (BITA) can potentially offer survival benefit in higher risk patients compared to single internal thoracic artery (SITA), but BITA is not routinely used due to lack of clear evidence of efficacy and concerns over sternal wound complications. Methods: Medline, Embase and the Cochrane Library were searched for studies comparing the efficacy and safety of BITA and SITA grafting in patients with diabetes and obesity. Meta-analysis of mortality and sternal wound complications was performed. Results: We identified eight observational and ten propensity matched studies, and one RCT, comparing BITA and SITA which included patients with diabetes (n = 19,589); two propensity matched studies and one RCT which included patients with obesity (n = 6,972); mean follow up was 10.5 and 11.3 years respectively. Meta-analysis demonstrated a mortality reduction for BITA compared to SITA in patients with diabetes (risk ratio [RR] 0.79; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.70-0.90; p = 0.0003). In patients with obesity there was a non-significant reduction in mortality in the BITA group (RR 0.73, 95% CI 0.47-1.12; p = 0.15). There was a significantly higher rate of sternal wound complications following BITA observed in patients with diabetes (RR 1.53, 95% CI 1.23-1.90; p = 0.0001) and obesity (RR 2.24, 95% CI 1.63-3.07; p < 0.00001). Conclusions: BITA is associated with better long-term survival in patients with diabetes. The effects of BITA grafting in patients with obesity are uncertain. BITA is associated with higher rates of sternal wound complications compared to SITA in both patients with diabetes and obesity.

Association between sternal wound complications and 10-year mortality following coronary artery bypass grafting.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association between sternal wound complications (SWC) and long-term mortality in the Arterial Revascularization Trial. METHODS: Participants in the Arterial Revascularization Trial were stratified according to the occurrence of postoperative SWC. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality at long-term follow-up. The secondary outcome was major adverse cardiovascular events. RESULTS: Three thousand one hundred two patients were included in the analysis; the median follow-up was 10 years. 115 patients (3.7%) had postoperative SWC: 85 (73.9%) deep sternal wound infections and 30 (26.1%) sterile SWC that required sternal reconstruction. Independent predictors of SWC included diabetes (odds ratio [OR], 2.77; 95% CI, 1.79-4.30; P < .001), female sex (OR, 2.73; 95% CI, 1.71-4.38; P < .001), prior stroke (OR, 2.59; 95% CI, 1.12-5.98; P = .03), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (OR, 2.44; 95% CI, 1.60-3.71; P < .001), and use of bilateral internal thoracic artery (OR, 1.70; 95% CI, 1.12-2.59; P = .01). Postoperative SWC was significantly associated with long-term mortality. The Kaplan-Meier survival estimate was 91.3% at 5 years and 79.4% at 10 years in patients without SWC, and 86.1% and 64.3% in patients with SWC (log rank P < .001). The rate of major adverse cardiovascular events was also higher among patients who had SWC (n = 51 [44.3%] vs 758 [25.4%]; P < .001). Using multivariable analysis, the occurrence of SWC was independently associated with long-term mortality (hazard ratio, 1.81; 95% CI, 1.30-2.54; P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: In the Arterial Revascularization Trial, postoperative SWC although uncommon were significantly associated with long-term mortality.

Decentralised clinical trials in multiple sclerosis research.

Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) play an important role in multiple sclerosis (MS) research, ensuring that new interventions are safe and efficacious before their introduction into clinical practice. Trials have been evolving to improve the robustness of their designs and the efficiency of their conduct. Advances in digital and mobile technologies in recent years have facilitated this process and the first RCTs with decentralised elements became possible. Decentralised clinical trials (DCTs) are conducted remotely, enabling participation of a more heterogeneous population who can participate in research activities from different locations and at their convenience. DCTs also rely on digital and mobile technologies which allows for more flexible and frequent assessments. While hospitals quickly adapted to e-health and telehealth assessments during the COVID-19 pandemic, the conduct of conventional RCTs was profoundly disrupted. In this paper, we review the existing evidence and gaps in knowledge in the design and conduct of DCTs in MS.

A Risk-Prediction Model for Placenta Accreta Spectrum Severity From Standardized Ultrasound Markers.

We aimed to generate a model to predict the risk of a woman having normal, abnormally adherent (AAP) or abnormally invasive placentation (AIP) based on the presence of recently codified ultrasound (US) markers and disease definitions of placenta accreta spectrum (PAS). We recruited women with anterior low-lying placenta or placenta previa and a history of previous caesarean delivery to a prospective cohort study. US markers of abnormal placentation were recorded on a standardized pro forma. The presence and International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics grade of PAS was evaluated clinically and histologically at delivery. Markers demonstrating a predictive relationship to PAS were incorporated into a logistic regression model. A total of 106 women were included, of whom 42 (40%) were normal, 24 (23%) had AAP and 40 (38%) had AIP. A model including just four key variables (loss of clear zone, abnormal placental lacunae, placental bulge and bladder wall interruption) was shown to reliably predict presence and severity of PAS, with an optimism-corrected C-index of 0.901. A simple model incorporating four US markers can predict likelihood and severity of PAS with high accuracy. This is the first time this has been demonstrated using the recently codified definitions of the US signs and disease definitions. Further work will see our model applied prospectively to a large patient cohort, ideally through a smartphone-based application, for external validation.

How a thrombectomy service can reduce hospital deficit: a cost-effectiveness study.

BACKGROUND: There is level 1 evidence for cerebral thrombectomy with thrombolysis in acute large vessel occlusion. Many hospitals are now contemplating setting up this life-saving service. For the hospital, however, the first treatment is associated with an initial high cost to cover the procedure. Whilst the health economic benefit of treating stroke is documented, this is the only study to date performing matched-pair, patient-level costing to determine treatment cost within the first hospital episode and up to 90 days post-event. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective coarsened exact matched-pair analysis of 50 acute stroke patients eligible for thrombectomy. RESULTS: Thrombectomy resulted in significantly more good outcomes (mRS 0-2) compared to matched controls (56% vs 8%, p = 0.001). More patients in the thrombectomy group could be discharged home (60% vs 28%), fewer were discharged to nursing homes (4% vs 16%), residential homes (0% vs 12%) or rehabilitation centres (8% vs 20%). Thrombectomy patients had fewer serious adverse events (n = 30 vs 86) and were, on average, discharged 36 days earlier. They required significantly fewer physiotherapy sessions (18.72 vs 46.49, p = 0.0009) resulting in a median reduction in total rehabilitation cost of £4982 (p = 0.0002) per patient. The total cost of additional investigations was £227 lower (p = 0.0369). Overall, the median cost without thrombectomy was £39,664 per case vs £22,444, resulting in median savings of £17,221 (p = 0.0489). CONCLUSIONS: Mechanical thrombectomy improved patient outcome, reduced length of hospitalisation and, even without procedural reimbursement, significantly reduced cost to the thrombectomy providing hospital.

Increased long-term mortality following new-onset atrial fibrillation in the intensive care unit: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PURPOSE: We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to investigate the long-term outcomes of patients who develop new-onset atrial fibrillation (NOAF) during an intensive care unit (ICU) admission. METHODS: We searched the MEDLINE and EMBASE databases from 2000 to 2022. We included studies of adults based in general ICUs that evaluated long-term outcomes (at least 30 days after hospital discharge) of NOAF. We excluded studies involving patients with a history of atrial fibrillation (AF). We performed risk of bias assessment of the included studies based on a modified Newcastle Ottawa score (NOS). We extracted summary data for long-term outcomes. Where the outcome was reported in three or more studies we pooled effect sizes. RESULTS: We screened 2206 studies and included 15 studies reporting data from 561,797 patients. Pooled analysis of 4 studies using a random effects model revealed an association between NOAF acquired in an ICU and 90-day mortality (including ICU and hospital mortality) (RR 1.53, 95% CI 1.12-2.08). We also found an association between NOAF and 1-year mortality from 7 studies (RR 1.79, 95% CI 1.65-1.96), which remained when analysing 1-year mortality in hospital survivors (RR 1.72 (95% CI 1.49-1.98). CONCLUSIONS: In patients who develop NOAF in an ICU, both 90-day and 1-year mortality are increased in comparison to those who do not develop NOAF. Current evidence suggests an increased risk of thromboembolic events after hospital discharge in patients who develop NOAF in an ICU.

Single versus multiple arterial grafting in diabetic patients at 10 years: the Arterial Revascularization Trial.

AIMS: To evaluate the impact of multiple arterial grafting (MAG) vs. single arterial grafting (SAG) in a post hoc analysis of 10-year outcomes in patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) from the Arterial Revascularization Trial (ART). METHODS AND RESULTS: The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality and the secondary endpoint was a composite of major adverse cardiac events (MACE) at 10-year follow-up. Patients were stratified by diabetes status (non-DM and DM) and grafting strategy (MAG vs. SAG). A total of 3020 patients were included in the analysis; 716 (23.7%) had DM. Overall, 55.8% non-DM patients received MAG and 44.2% received SAG, while 56.6% DM patients received MAG and 43.4% received SAG. The use of MAG compared with SAG was associated with lower 10-year mortality for both non-DM [17.7 vs. 21.0%, adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 0.87, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.72-1.06] and DM patients (21.5 vs. 29.9%, adjusted HR 0.65, 95% CI 0.48-0.89; P for interaction = 0.12). For both groups, the rate of 10-year MACE was also lower for MAG vs. SAG. Overall, deep sternal wound infections (DSWIs) were uncommon but more frequent in the MAG vs. SAG group in both non-DM (3.3 vs. 2.1%) and DM patients (7.9 vs. 4.8%). The highest rates of DSWI were in insulin-treated patients receiving MAG (9.6 vs. 6.3%, when compared with SAG). CONCLUSION: In this post hoc analysis of the ART, MAG was associated with substantially lower mortality rates at 10 years after coronary artery bypass grafting in patients with DM. Patients with DM receiving MAG had a higher incidence of DSWI, especially if insulin dependent.

The bacteriology of pleural infection (TORPIDS): an exploratory metagenomics analysis through next generation sequencing.

BACKGROUND: Pleural infection is a common and severe disease with high morbidity and mortality worldwide. The knowledge of pleural infection bacteriology remains incomplete, as pathogen detection methods based on culture have insufficient sensitivity and are biased to selected microbes. We designed a study with the aim to discover and investigate the total microbiome of pleural infection and assess the correlation between bacterial patterns and 1-year survival of patients. METHODS: We assessed 243 pleural fluid samples from the PILOT study, a prospective observational study on pleural infection, with 16S rRNA next generation sequencing. 20 pleural fluid samples from patients with pleural effusion due to a non-infectious cause and ten PCR-grade water samples were used as controls. Downstream analysis was done with the DADA2 pipeline. We applied multivariate Cox regression analyses to investigate the association between bacterial patterns and 1-year survival of patients with pleural infection. FINDINGS: Pleural infection was predominately polymicrobial (192 [79%] of 243 samples), with diverse bacterial frequencies observed in monomicrobial and polymicrobial disease and in both community-acquired and hospital-acquired infection. Mixed anaerobes and other Gram-negative bacteria predominated in community-acquired polymicrobial infection whereas Streptococcus pneumoniae prevailed in monomicrobial cases. The presence of anaerobes (hazard ratio 0·46, 95% CI 0·24-0·86, p=0·015) or bacteria of the Streptococcus anginosus group (0·43, 0·19-0·97, p=0·043) was associated with better patient survival, whereas the presence (5·80, 2·37-14·21, p<0·0001) or dominance (3·97, 1·20-13·08, p=0·024) of Staphylococcus aureus was linked with lower survival. Moreover, dominance of Enterobacteriaceae was associated with higher risk of death (2·26, 1·03-4·93, p=0·041). INTERPRETATION: Pleural infection is a predominantly polymicrobial infection, explaining the requirement for broad spectrum antibiotic cover in most individuals. High mortality infection associated with S aureus and Enterobacteriaceae favours more aggressive, with a narrower spectrum, antibiotic strategies. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health Research Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, Wellcome Trust, Oxfordshire Health Services Research Committee, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, and John Fell Fund.

Prognostic factors of 10-year mortality after coronary artery bypass graft surgery: a secondary analysis of the arterial revascularization trial.

OBJECTIVES: The objective of this investigation was to determine the preoperative prognostic factors of long-term (10-year) mortality in patients treated with isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery in the arterial revascularization trial (ART). METHODS: A post hoc analysis of the ART was conducted. Cumulative 10-year mortality was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Prospectively collected preoperative data were used to determine the prognostic factors of 10-year all-cause mortality in patients who participated in the ART (Cox proportional hazards model). RESULTS: A total of 3102 patients who participated in the ART were included in the analysis. Ten-year follow-up was completed in 3040 patients (98%). A total of 644 patients (20.8%) had died by 10 years. Preoperative factors that were identified as statistically significant predictors of 10-year mortality in the multivariable analysis (all P ≤ 0.01) were: left ventricular ejection fraction, atrial fibrillation, age, diabetes, prior cerebrovascular event (stroke or transient ischaemic attack), serum creatinine and smoking status. The following variables were significantly associated in univariable models but did not retain significance in the multivariable model for mortality: non-Caucasian ethnicity, hypertension, peripheral vascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and prior myocardial infarction. CONCLUSIONS: Independent predictors of 10-year mortality in the ART were multifactorial. Several key independent predictors of 10-year mortality in the ART were identified including: heart function, renal function, cerebrovascular disease, age, atrial fibrillation, smoking status and diabetes. Understanding which preoperative variables influence long-term outcome after coronary artery bypass grafting may help to target treatments to those at higher risk to reduce mortality.

Automated quantification of atrophy and acute ischemic volume for outcome prediction in endovascular thrombectomy.

Background: Short- and long-term outcomes from endovascular thrombectomy (EVT) for large vessel occlusion stroke remain variable. Numerous relevant predictors have been identified, including severity of neurological deficits, age, and imaging features. The latter is typically defined as acute changes (most commonly Alberta Stroke Programme Early CT Score, ASPECTS, at presentation), but there is little information on the impact of imaging assessment of premorbid brain health as a determinant of outcome. Aims: To examine the impact of automated measures of stroke severity and underlying brain frailty on short- and long-term outcomes in acute stroke treated with EVT. Methods: In 215 patients with anterior circulation stroke, who subsequently underwent EVT, automated analysis of presenting non-contrast CT scans was used to determine acute ischemic volume (AIV) and e-ASPECTS as markers of stroke severity, and cerebral atrophy as a marker of brain frailty. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were used to identify significant predictors of NIHSS improvement, modified Rankin scale (mRS) at 90 and 30 days, mortality at 90 days and symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (sICH) following successful EVT. Results: For long-term outcome, atrophy and presenting NIHSS were significant predictors of mRS 0-2 and death at 90 days, whereas age did not reach significance in multivariate analysis. Conversely, for short-term NIHSS improvement, AIV and age were significant predictors, unlike presenting NIHSS. The interaction between age and NIHSS was similar to the interaction of AIV and atrophy for mRS 0-2 at 90 days. Conclusion: Combinations of automated software-based imaging analysis and clinical data can be useful for predicting short-term neurological outcome and may improve long-term prognostication in EVT. These results provide a basis for future development of predictive tools built into decision-aiding software in stroke.

A randomised controlled trial of intrapleural balloon intercostal chest drains to prevent drain displacement.

BACKGROUND: Chest drain displacement is a common clinical problem that occurs in 9-42% of cases and results in treatment failure or additional pleural procedures conferring unnecessary risk. A novel chest drain with an integrated intrapleural balloon may reduce the risk of displacement. METHODS: A prospective randomised controlled trial comparing the balloon drain to standard care (12 F chest drain with no balloon) with the primary outcome of objectively defined unintentional or accidental chest drain displacement. RESULTS: 267 patients were randomised (primary outcome data available in 257, 96.2%). Displacement occurred less frequently using the balloon drain (displacement 5 of 128, 3.9%; standard care displacement 13 of 129, 10.1%) but this was not statistically significant (OR for drain displacement 0.36, 95% CI 0.13-1.0, Chi-squared 1 degree of freedom (df)=2.87, p=0.09). Adjusted analysis to account for minimisation factors and use of drain sutures demonstrated balloon drains were independently associated with reduced drain fall-out rate (adjusted OR 0.27, 95% CI 0.08-0.87, p=0.028). Adverse events were higher in the balloon arm than the standard care arm (balloon drain 59 of 131, 45.0%; standard care 18 of 132, 13.6%; Chi-squared 1 df=31.3, p<0.0001). CONCLUSION: Balloon drains reduce displacement compared with standard drains independent of the use of sutures but are associated with increased adverse events specifically during drain removal. The potential benefits of the novel drain should be weighed against the risks, but may be considered in practices where sutures are not routinely used.

Comparative effectiveness of common treatments for new-onset atrial fibrillation within the ICU: Accounting for physiological status.

BACKGROUND: New-onset atrial fibrillation (NOAF) is common in patients on an intensive care unit (ICU). Evidence guiding treatments is limited, though recent reports suggest beta blocker (BB) therapy is associated with reduced mortality. METHODS: We conducted a multicentre cohort study of adult patients admitted to 3 ICUs in the UK and 5 ICUs in the USA. We analysed the haemodynamic changes associated with NOAF. We analysed rate control, rhythm control, and hospital mortality associated with common NOAF treatments. We balanced admission and post-NOAF, pre-treatment covariates across treatment groups. RESULTS: NOAF was followed by a systolic blood pressure reduction of 5 mmHg (p < 0.001). After adjustment, digoxin therapy was associated with inferior rate control versus amiodarone (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 0.56, [95% CI 0.34-0.92]). Calcium channel blocker (CCB) therapy was associated with inferior rhythm control versus amiodarone (aHR 0.59 (0.37-0.92). No difference was detected between BBs and amiodarone in rate control (aHR 1.15 [0.91-1.46]), rhythm control (aHR 0.85, [0.69-1.05]), or hospital mortality (aHR 1.03 [0.53-2.03]). CONCLUSIONS: NOAF in ICU patients is followed by decreases in blood pressure. BBs and amiodarone are associated with similar cardiovascular control and appear superior to digoxin and CCBs. Accounting for key confounders removes previously reported mortality benefits associated with BB treatment.

Effect of total arterial grafting in the Arterial Revascularization Trial.

OBJECTIVES: The Arterial Revascularization Trial (ART) was designed to compare 10-year survival in bilateral versus single internal thoracic artery grafts. The intention-to-treat analysis has showed comparable outcomes between the 2 groups but an explanatory analysis suggested that those receiving 2 or more arterial grafts had better survival. Whether the exclusive use of arterial grafts provide further benefit is unclear. METHODS: We performed an exploratory analysis of the ART based on conduits actually received (as-treated principle). From ART cohort, only patients receiving at least 3 grafts were included. The final population consisted of 1084, 1010, and 390 patients in the single arterial graft (SAG) group, in the multiple arterial graft (MAG) group (2 or more arterial grafts with additional saphenous veins) and total arterial graft (TAG) group (3 or more arterial grafts only) respectively. Inverse probability of treatment weighting was used for comparison. RESULTS: When compared with the SAG group, there was a significant trend toward a reduction of 10-year mortality in the MAG and TAG group (test for trend P = .02). The TAG group was associated with the lowest risk of late mortality (hazard ratio, 0.68; 95% confidence interval, 0.48-0.96; P = .03) and with a significant risk reduction of the composite of death/myocardial infarction/stroke and repeat revascularization (hazard ratio, 0.71; 95% confidence interval, 0.53-0.94; P = .02). CONCLUSIONS: When compared with SAG, both MAG and TAG represent valuable strategies to improve clinical outcomes following coronary artery bypass grafting but TAG can potentially provide further benefit.

Cost-effectiveness of bilateral vs. single internal thoracic artery grafts at 10 years.

AIMS: Using bilateral internal thoracic arteries (BITAs) for coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) has been suggested to improve survival compared to CABG using single internal thoracic arteries (SITAs) for patients with advanced coronary artery disease. We used data from the Arterial Revascularization Trial (ART) to assess long-term cost-effectiveness of BITA grafting compared to SITA grafting from an English health system perspective. METHODS AND RESULTS: Resource use, healthcare costs, and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were assessed across 10 years of follow-up from an intention-to-treat perspective. Missing data were addressed using multiple imputation. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were calculated with uncertainty characterized using non-parametric bootstrapping. Results were extrapolated beyond 10 years using Gompertz functions for survival and linear models for total cost and utility. Total mean costs at 10 years of follow-up were £17 594 in the BITA arm and £16 462 in the SITA arm [mean difference £1133 95% confidence interval (CI) £239 to £2026, P = 0.015]. Total mean QALYs at 10 years were 6.54 in the BITA arm and 6.57 in the SITA arm (adjusted mean difference -0.01 95% CI -0.2 to 0.1, P = 0.883). At 10 years, BITA grafting had a 33% probability of being cost-effective compared to SITA, assuming a cost-effectiveness threshold of £20 000. Lifetime extrapolation increased the probability of BITA being cost-effective to 51%. CONCLUSIONS: BITA grafting has significantly higher costs but similar quality-adjusted survival at 10 years compared to SITA grafting. Extrapolation suggests this could change over lifetime.